Predicting farmers' adoption of some agricultural innovations in a village in Assiut governorate, Egypt

The current research aimed in general to predict the future of farmers' adoption of two agricultural innovation (silage and compost manufacture) through: 1) assessing the studied innovations based on Adoption and Diffusion Outcome Prediction Tool (ADOPT) from farmer views, 2) Predicting the adoption of studied innovation (Predicted peak level of adoption and Predicted years to peak adoption), and 3) determining the factors affecting the adoption. Data were collected during Feb. 2020 using the Focus Group Discussion with members of the board of directors of Local and Agricultural Community Development Association (11 members) in Al-Duwair village of Sidfa District, Assiut governorate, Egypt. Results of the study found that both the studied innovation (Silage and Compost) will achieve the peak level of adoption (98%) during 4, 10 years, respectively. The study also found that the factors associated with the design and characteristics of the innovation were at the forefront of the factors affecting the adoption of the studied innovations, followed by factors related to extension efforts. In light of the results reached, the study recommended the use of ADOPT in predicting all agricultural innovations before starting the diffusion, because the tool was designed for this purpose, and the results of the study can be used to accelerate access to the peak level of adoption of the studied innovations by affecting the internal components of the ADOPT.