Impact of Rainfall and Temperature on the Yield of Major Crops in Gujarat State of India: A Panel Data Analysis (1980-2011)

Fixed effects panel data approach for multiple year was used to analyse the impact of rainfall and temperature on the yield of major crops in the Western Indian State of Gujarat. During the period of study, the maximum temperature increased by 1.54°C in Saurashtra, while the minimum temperature increased by 5.41°C in Middle Gujarat. Rainfall increased by 401.77 mm in Saursahtra The results of regression of yield on weather and non-weather variables revealed that rainfall had a positive effect on most crops, while temperature had a negative impact confirming that high temperatures could be detrimental to food security in long run. Rice was found most hit of all crops, due to rise in temperature. Pearl Millet was the only crop that showed resistance to high temperature, due to its stress tolerant ability. Irrigation was found significant for Cotton, Wheat and Pearl Millet showing the importance of irrigation in these crops. Pearl Millet may be looked upon as a crop of future. As the consumption of rice is high, attention must be given to the crop. On the other hand, consumption of pearl millet must be promoted in diets and more area must be brought under the crop. Assured irrigation in cotton, wheat and pearl millet is necessary to harvest better yield. More area must be brought under irrigation in these crops. Furthermore, innovative technologies in agriculture must be promoted to face the challenges rising out of the changing weather parameters.