Statistical Study and Analysis of the Parameters in Forbush Effects and Interplanetary Disturbances (FEID) During Solar Cycles 23 and 24

A comprehensive statistical analysis of Forbush Effects and Interplanetary Disturbances (FEIDs) parameters during Solar Cycles (SCs) 23 and 24, spanning from 1996 to 2019 was performed. The Forbush Effect (FE) is characterized by a temporary reduction in cosmic ray (CR) flux observed on Earth, typically following solar CMEs, high-speed solar wind streams, and other solar eruptions. These reductions, known as Forbush Decreases (FDs), result from interactions between the solar wind, interplanetary magnetic fields, and galactic CR within Earth's magnetosphere. Interplanetary disturbances encompass a range of phenomena resulting from the interaction between solar wind and the Earth's magnetosphere, affecting space weather conditions significantly. The goal is to elucidate the temporal variations, interrelationships, and trends of key FEID parameters, thereby enhancing our understanding of solar-terrestrial interactions and space weather dynamics. The research utilizes data from the FEID database maintained by IZMIRAN, along with sunspot numbers (SSNs) from the Royal Observatory of Belgium. Key parameters analyzed include Bmax (maximum interplanetary magnetic field intensity), VmBm (product of solar wind velocity and interplanetary magnetic field intensity), Bzmin (minimum value of the southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF)), Bzm to Bm (ratio of Bz minimum to the maximum value of the interplanetary magnetic field), and (maximum absolute value of the component of the IMF) to explain the variations, interrelationships, and trends in these parameters and their impact on space weather and cosmic ray intensity (CRI) variations. Comprehensive statistical techniques, including time series analysis, correlation analysis, and trend analysis, were employed to examine the nearly two-and-a-half decades of data. The analysis reveals significant temporal variations and correlations among FEID parameters across SCs 23 and 24. During SC 23, a strong negative correlation was observed between Bmax and SSNs, while SC 24 exhibited a weaker positive correlation. Similarly, Bzmin showed a strong inverse relationship with SSNs in SC 23, contrasting with a weaker positive correlation in SC 24. Time series analysis indicated that SC 24 generally exhibited higher Bmax values and more pronounced fluctuations in VmBm compared to SC 23. Distribution plots revealed that parameters like Bzmin and ABzmax exhibited heavy-tailed distributions, indicating significant outliers and extreme values. The study underscores the importance of continuous monitoring and detailed statistical analysis to improve space weather forecasting and mitigate the impacts of solar disturbances on technological systems and human activities in space and on Earth.