TREND ANALYSIS OF MAIZE PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTIVITY IN NIGERIA

Maize is recognized as a major source of food and cash income among the predominantly small-holder farmers in Nigeria. It has evolved from a backyard crop in the 1970s to become the third most important, in terms of output and area cultivated, after sorghum and millet in the 1990s. It is the most widely distributed cultivated crop in Nigeria with cultivation from the wet evergreen forest zone to the dry ecology of the Sudan savanna. In fact, maize is one of the seven crops included in the Nigeria’s government agricultural transformation agenda (ATA) programme. This paper set out to analyze the growth rates in output, hectarage and productivity of the maize crop in Nigeria. Specifically, the study seeks to (i) estimate the instantaneous and compound growth rates of maize output, hectarage and productivity (ii) investigate the existence of acceleration, stagnation or deceleration in growth rates of maize output, hectarage and productivity over the period (1990-2011). Time series data on aggregate maize output and maize hectarage in Nigeria for the period 1990-2011 were utilized. A semi-log growth rate model was estimated to achieve the study’s objectives. Findings of the study indicate (i) accelerated growth in maize production (IGR 1.3%; CGR 1.3%) and productivity (IGR 2.6%; CGR 2.6%); and (ii) significant growth deceleration in maize hectarage (IGR -1.4%; CGR -201%) over the period 1990-2011. The study concluded that Nigeria has (i) maintained a very low maize output growth rate when compared to most Asian countries, which translate into insufficient output as Nigeria still imports maize (ii) maize productivity in Nigeria is among the highest in the LDCs even though average actual yield in MT per hectare is well below that expected from the adoption of recommended agronomic practices. Considering the vast land resources of Nigeria and its rapid population growth rate, the study recommends both intensification and extensification of maize production to enhance maize output in Nigeria.